New poll in Yadira Caraveo-Gabe Evans race for Congress gives slight — but not definitive

U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo has built a slight edge over Republican opponent Gabe Evans in Colorado’s tightest congressional contest less than a week before the Nov. 5 election, according to a poll released Wednesday.

But her lead — less than 2 percentage points — remained well within the survey’s margin of error.

The latest data from Emerson College Polling’s survey of 485 voters in the 8th Congressional District north of Denver shows 47.5% of voters backing the freshman Democrat and pediatrician, versus 45.8% favoring Evans, a state representative who’s an Army veteran and a former Arvada police officer. The poll was conducted by the national firm for The Hill and Fox31/Channel 2 in Denver.

Nearly 7 percent remained undecided in what is considered to be one of the country’s closest congressional races. The poll was conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.

There has been limited public polling in the race this year. The latest survey results come nearly a month after Emerson conducted a similar poll in late September that showed Caraveo and Evans knotted at 44%, with nearly 12% then undecided. The candidates have debated each other twice since the earlier poll was conducted.

As with the wide gender divide between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race — with men preferring Trump and women favoring Harris — Caraveo has captured more of women’s votes, according to last week’s poll, while Evans is claiming more allegiance from men.

“There is a significant gender divide separating the two congressional candidates; Evans leads among men 55% to 42%, while Caraveo leads among women 52% to 37%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

The poll revealed that 8th District voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the job President Joe Biden is doing (53.6% to 39.7%); favor Harris over Trump by less than a percentage point (48.5% for Harris, 47.9% for Trump); and consider the economy far and away the most salient issue, with 33.8% rating it at the top.

Among the Emerson polls respondents, 28.7% identified as Democrats, 34.4% identified as Republicans and 36.9% identified as unaffiliated voters.