There is no Spanish word for “swing state.”
But there are many Latinos living and voting in the seven battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of race for the White House between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. So Spanish-language network Telemundo came up with a term: “El Péndulo.”
“El Péndulo,” or the pendulum, became the name of and will be used frequently Tuesday when Noticias Telemundo anchor Julio Vaqueiro leads the network’s “Decisión 2024” coverage alongside Arantxa Loizaga. (The broadcast will also be streamed on the network’s free streaming channel, Noticias Telemundo Ahora.)
Vaqueiro has led the NBCUniversal-owned network’s nightly newscast since 2021. A native of San Juan del Rio, Querétaro, Mexico, he has been with the network since 2011 and was a favorite of Los Angeles viewers when he anchored local morning and evening news programs on Telemundo 52.
Vaqueiro, 37, shared his insights on covering the Latino vote in a phone conversation from the network’s Miami studio.
What are we learning about Latino voters in this presidential cycle that the English-speaking media had been missing?
People are beginning to understand how important they are in terms of numbers. More than 36 million Latinos are eligible to vote this election cycle. Both campaigns know about their importance. But there’s still a lot to really know about Latino voters — how complex they are, how diverse they are and how many issues are important for them.
Latino voters are a dynamic group that’s been changing. It’s the fastest-growing group, it’s the second-largest group of voting-age Americans, and a lot of them are young voters who are still undecided and are up for grabs. And sometimes we still talk about the “Latino vote” as a big bloc of voters. The truth is that they vote differently if they live in Florida, if they come from Cuba or Venezuela, or if they come from Puerto Rico, or if they live in California and they come from Mexico and Central America.
What are those regional differences?
We can say in general that we see a trend in which Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, Central Americans tend to be more Democratic. They tend to live in the southwestern part of the country. And then in Florida, we see a Cuban American population that tends to be more Republican. In central Florida, we have a Puerto Rican community that can be more Democratic. But then the swing states, which really matter this time around — Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania — we see communities that can be very divided.
For instance, we used to think about Latinos in Pennsylvania as Puerto Ricans living in Philadelphia and in the suburbs of that city. And there’s this whole population that got to an area called the “Latino Belt,” in places like Allentown or Hazleton with a large Dominican Republic population and Mexican population, and where you see the vote is very divided.
Part of it has to do with the origins of these voters, the countries where they come from, and their personal stories of migration and the stories of migration within their families. But the issues they care about are very similar to the issues that an American cares about: the economy, the cost of living, inflation.
What was the viewer reaction to that joke that comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made about Puerto Rico at ?
People are saying they are outraged and disgusted by the joke. And — Bad Bunny, Ricky Martin, Jennifer Lopez — and all of them signaling their support to the Democratic candidate. That can be very important if you think about the amount of followers they have on social media, more than 300 million all together.
So this could have an impact?
Well, I think it could. In a state like Pennsylvania, it can really make a difference. If you think about the margins by which President Biden won the state in 2020 — only 80,000 votes — and there are more than a half-million Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania.
Trump has been polling better among Latinos than any recent Republican presidential candidate. Does he have any type of characteristics that appeal to Latino voters?
The most important thing to consider is how these voters can be open to different options. Now, the issue they mostly care about is the economy, the cost of living, inflation. So many of them supporting the alternative to the government that they’ve had for the past four years comes from economic concerns. Former President Trump does appeal to some Latino men especially, because in Latin America we do have that caudillo image or caudillo figure of a strong man in government. We have a couple of examples there: Nayib Bukele, Nicolás Maduro and Fidel Castro. And some voters might feel attracted to that masculinity.
Is a woman president a harder sell for Latino men? Or does what we’ve recently seen in Mexico where was elected show that it’s not?
We actually also have lots of examples in Latin America of women presidents. You just mentioned Mexico, for instance. So definitely no.
Harris did a 20-minute sit-down interview with you. Trump did not. (Trump did appear in a town hall that aired on Univison). Did his campaign say why?
No. We’ve really tried. We’ve sent emails, letters, we’ve had meetings with them. They just haven’t agreed to an interview.
In your talk with Harris, you pointed out how neither candidate has really talked a lot about a path to citizenship for migrants. Most of the immigration discussion has centered on border protection. Is that something you’re hearing from viewers?
I think most Latino voters agree with both things: immigration reform and a pathway to citizenship, and also a more secure border. But it’s true, we’ve seen this shift in the Democratic Party, where we are mainly talking about border security. And we have no details about how to get an immigration reform or an immigration relief for immigrants.
