Polls Are Tight as New York House Races Near the Finish Line

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Some of the most closely watched races in the nation are down to a few percentage points with Election Day fast approaching.

New York’s highly competitive House and Senate races continue to attract national attention as Election Day draws near. The latest polls suggest that the margins of victory in some of the races will be narrow, with polls giving either the Democrat or the Republican candidate a slight edge.

With such narrow majorities prevailing in both the House, with 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats, and the Senate, with 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, attention focuses on several races in upstate New York and on Long Island that could determine which way the balance of power tilts in the next Congress.

The polls show a Senate race where the incumbent Democrat enjoys a wide lead, in contrast to House races with differences of only one to four points either way.

Gillibrand Versus Sapraicone

In the closely watched Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and her Republican challenger, former homicide detective Mike Sapraicone, the incumbent commands a significant lead, with 60 percent of voters supporting her compared with 40 percent for Sapraicone, according to the most recent FiveThirtyEight polling data citing Activote.

Sapraicone did not gain significant ground as a result of the Oct. 23 debate in which he sought to portray Gillibrand as an establishment politician who helped perpetuate a lopsided arrangement where upstate New Yorkers must pay for lavish New York City accommodations for illegal immigrants.

The candidates sparred over Proposition 1, also known as the Equal Rights Amendment, a ballot initiative that would revise Section 11 of the state’s constitution to add new categories to those already protected under anti-discrimination law.

Gillibrand said the change was necessary to uphold the rights of pregnant women and those who have recently given birth, while Sapraicone argued that the passage of Proposition 1 would give male athletes access to women’s locker rooms and allow them to compete in women’s sports.

The issue has drawn both passionate support and opposition from residents of upstate and New York City.

In an email to The Epoch Times, Benji Federman, chairman of the Broome County Republican Committee, described the issue as a deflection on the part of the state’s Democrats.

“Rather than address record inflation and crime, Albany Democrats are deceptively trying to rewrite the Constitution to allow horribly unpopular policies like boys playing in girls sports and granting legal rights for non-citizens,” he wrote.

“Democrats hope the voters won’t see the true nature of this ballot proposition. They’re wrong—New Yorkers see right through it and are eager to strike it down.”

Rep. Brad Hoylman-Sigal, the Democrat representing District 47 who sponsored the ballot initiative, described opposition to Proposition 1 in an email as part of a broader offense led by “right-wing Supreme Court justices and Republican officials across the country” against the rights of LGBT Americans and other segments of the population still struggling to enshrine basic protections in law.

New York state Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal addresses the audience at the New York City AIDS Memorial during World AIDS Day 2016 in New York City on Dec. 1, 2016. Lars Niki/Getty Images for Housing Works

House Races

In the competitive race for New York’s First District, the most recent Siena College poll gives incumbent Republican Rep. Nick LaLota a three-point lead over Democrat challenger John Avlon, a former speechwriter for former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, with 47 percent of the vote to Avlon’s 44 percent.

In their Oct. 23 debate, the candidates sparred over fiscal policy. LaLota disparaged Avlon’s approach to economic matters as “the Hochul approach” in an attempt to link Avlon with Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration and with “one-party rule in Albany,” which LaLota blamed for exorbitant sales, property, and income taxes as well as inflation.

LaLota criticized all 14 New York Democrats in the House of Representatives for voting against an increase in the State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction cap when the matter came up for a vote in February.

Avlon described LaLota as too conservative to represent an ideologically diverse district and criticized the congressman as a “professional partisan politician” who favored the interests of some constituents, such as police and firefighters, over teachers, nurses, and other working people facing higher housing and transportation costs.

In New York’s Third District, Democrat Rep. Tom Suozzi, who won a special election against his Republican opponent Mazi Pilip to claim the House seat vacated by the expelled Rep. George Santos, has a wide lead over his current Republican challenger, Mike LiPetri.

Despite LiPetri’s efforts during an Oct. 8 debate to characterize Suozzi as beholden to radicals within the Democratic Party, FiveThirtyEight data give Suozzi a 14-point lead over LiPetri, with 51 percent of the vote compared with LiPetri’s 37 percent.

The same poll suggests that support for Suozzi in the district had become entrenched compared with his position in February, when FiveThirtyEight gave him only a tiny one-point lead over Pilip.

New York’s Fourth District is the site of a competitive race between incumbent Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and his Democrat challenger, Laura Gillen. Here, predictions vary widely as to who is in the lead.

Gotham Polling & Analytics poll data from Oct. 11–19 give D’Esposito a one-point edge—with 46 percent of voters likely to cast their ballots for him compared with 45 percent for Gillen.

But a Siena College poll from an overlapping period of the month, Oct. 13–17, finds Gillen with a 12-point lead, enjoying the support of 53 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for D’Esposito.

Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.), while speaking at a news conference, holds up copies of legislation he plans to introduce, outside the Capitol in Washington on March 7, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images) — Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), while speaking at a news conference, holds up copies of legislation he plans to introduce, outside the Capitol in Washington on March 7, 2023. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Upstate Battles

Another closely watched race is underway in upstate New York’s 19th District. Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro is fighting to retain his seat against Democrat challenger Josh Riley, who has a Big Law background.

According to three of four polls taken since the summer, Riley enjoys a clear lead over the incumbent. The latest SurveyUSA poll shows Riley leading Molinaro by four points, with 46 percent of the vote compared to Molinaro’s 42 percent.

In an Oct. 10 debate, both candidates drew attention to humble beginnings that allowed them to identify with upstate voters struggling to pay high utility bills and property taxes.

Riley promised to foster facilities that would make the state more competitive in lithium-ion production and bring many jobs to the region. He also tried to paint Molinaro as a friend of powerful hedge funds.

Molinaro pressed what he considered his opponent’s greatest vulnerability, the Democrats’ failure to protect the southern border, which Molinaro said has resulted in an upstate influx of illegal immigrants, some of whom went on to commit heinous crimes.

Yet another area where a Democrat challenger hopes to unseat a Republican incumbent is the upstate 22nd District, which weathered the ravages of storms over the summer. Rep. Brandon Williams hopes to save his seat from a challenge by state Sen. John Mannion.

Mannion, who has taken a hard line on illegal immigration and the illicit fentanyl trade, with New York’s overdose death rate higher than the national average, is currently in a dead heat with Williams, according to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that found them both at 46 percent.